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Turkey vs Russia Explained
Syria conflict is characterized by superpower ambitions and Putin uses news company Pravda to show that he does not hazards with empty threats.
Middle East is on fire again because Turkey shot down a Russian Jet fighter. To understand this serious incident, we must understand the background - and a bit of history.
Russia has previously threatened both Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The threat was not made directly, but through a leak. It was the official Pravda newspaper that leaked a report. Pravda is controlled by Putin himself, since he was former KGB chief and professional spy.
The published report explains how Russia has previously threatened the Sunni Islam super power triangle Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Russia insinuates that a country which supports terrorism through Islamic State or ISIS, is going to be exposed to rocket attacks in retaliation. This threat was described as more severe than the last Paris-terror, as it can transform the war against terror to a regional war. This conflict will make it difficult for the international community to be neutral. As super power nation China might join the war in order to protect Russia. This will give China an excuse to invade Japan, Vietnam, Cambodia and other nations in Asia. North Korea will have the perfect opportunity to invade South Korea and end the Korean civil war. This conflict will also draw in USA as USA needs to protect South Korea. Europe needs to protect their allies Vietnam, Japan and Hong Kong and we might have a WW3 on our hands.
Pravda also reminded that Putin's threats are serious. Putin said in 1999 that he would kill the terrorists, even if they were sitting at their toilet. Putin put his threat into action and killed Chechnya war princes, destroyed their capital Grozny with carpet bombing, killing Chechen President Zelimkhan Jandarbijev earlier in 2004 after Friday prayers in the capital Duha in Qatar.
Those who assassinated the president Zelimkhan was three KGB spies who were linked to the Russian embassy. Qatar authorities arrested them, but released them later for fear of Russian retaliation. When Putin says something he seriously puts his word into action. The words and threat of Vladimir Putin are not empty like the great nation of USA. No offense guys. Forgive me and hope you understands my American comrades.
Qatar is one of the States who organized the terrorist act in the Sinai desert in Egypt. Vladimir Putin also wonders why Saudi Arabia has not yet been punished by USA. As the Saudi Arabia was the one responsible for the terror attack on twin towers on September 11 in the United States. Which also led to the US invasion of Iraq.
Relations between Qatar and Russia has not been good. Qatar does not hide its support for Islamist movements, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood and ISIS. This support creates turmoil in Moscow Russia is facing intense separatist activities of political Islam in the Muslim Caucasus republics. So it is in Russian benefits to exterminate ISIS and The Islamic Brotherhood to prevent inspiration of Jihad movements inside of Russia.
Qatar has given unlimited support with billions of dollars to the armed forces that fight against Syria regime. Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey insists on overthrowing President Assad. Because President Assad refused to build a gas pipeline through Syria that would compete with Russian gas.
Arabs believe that Russia is loyal to its allies and this is based on past experiences with Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi. Putin is now trying to change this image to inspire confidence with his new allies. In addition, Russia's leadership is suspicious of Saudi Arabia. Putin cannot forget Saudi Arabia's role in getting the Soviet Union to experience historic military defeat by the hands of Afghanistan's mujahideen [holy warriors], funded with $ 20 billion in the 1980s. It is unlikely that Putin will allow the same defeat again in Syria. Putin also needs to protect Syria in order to protect Iran. As Vladimir Putin knows the enemies of Russia will target Iran after the collapse of Syria.
Soviet Union was in a declining phase. The system was corrupt and management consisted of senile old generals reaching retirement age. While US power was in a flourishing stage. Today in 2015 the situation is reversed. Russia has a strong management team of young men, Russia's power rises and gains ground after Russia regained its economic and military power. While US power has been characterized by weakness and retreat because of the Middle East wars of attrition.
Putin will not forgive Qatar or Turkeys role in destroying Russia's strategic weapons, namely gas. Putin will not forgive Saudi Arabia's role in drowning the international markets with cheap oil to harm Russia's and Iran's economy. Saudi Arabia has done this because Russia and Iran supports Syria's regime.
Adel al-Jubeir, Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, said in an arrogant way that President Assad must go in the UN council meeting. Whether it is in a peaceful manner or by war. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said to it is "foolishness" to provoke Russia.
Saudi Arabia stopped its provocation over the past two weeks after Russia's threat. It seems that Saudi Arabia realized that the USA will not go to war with Russia to defend Saudi royal family, and that Russia could easily support Shia muslim minorities in Saudi Arabia or Houthi in Yemen that Saudi Arabia is mixed into the war with. This will create a huge problem for Saudi royal family.
Middle East expert Yevgeny Satanovsky stated that Saudi Arabia and Qatar fears Russia as they feared cholera. Satanovsky said earlier in September 2013 that the quickest solution to the middle east conflict is to bomb Duha and Riyadh, Qatar and Saudi Arabia's capitals. This is the best solution to end terrorist finances and Putin agrees with his Middle East expert adviser.
This is not a distant fantasy. Because Russia can commit such an act, attacking Saudi Arabia or Qatar, to exercise its right to defend itself written down in Article 51 of the UN Charter. By using Article 51 of the UN Charter. Russia can invade Saudi Arabia and Qatar without starting a new World War 3. http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_16937.htm
Russia can justify this invasion by referring to the US attacks on Iraq after September 11th. Putin believes that the Russian passenger plane that crashed in the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt, where 224 passengers were killed, is a declaration of war against Russia. And that Russia will have to defend itself by invading other nations. Just as USA defended itself by invading Iraq.
Putin has taken many steps to divide the world into two fronts and has allied itself with Egypt, Iran, Jordan and a cooperative relationship with other Muslim nations from Africa. With so many Muslim allies. Shows that Russia's threat is serious and not just meaningless words. And Russia will use their Muslim allies to exterminate Turkey. Meanwhile USA allies itself with Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Morocco. Russia is allies with China. Meanwhile USA is allied with Europe and other small Asian nations near China. If USA decides to protect Turkey then World War 3 has been unleashed.
Turkey is also a proud nation, and would signal that Russia's threats do not have a deterrent effect on the country. Turkey also supports Turks living in Syria. Turkey will support the Turkish minorities in Russia and Russia supports Russian minorities in other countries such as Ukraine. Turkey also looks at Russia as occupying power, and Erdogan, with the Islamist ideology that he believes in. Cannot forget that Anapa, Sochi and other cities on the Black Sea was formerly under Turkish Ottoman Empire rule. And that Russia later annexed Turkish territory after winning wars against the Ottoman Caliphate.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan will never forget history of his ancestors. Because he is convinced by the Islamist ideology that he represents the Ottoman heritage, something the leadership of his political party did not deny. He believes himself to be the heir and direct descendent of the Ottomans.
Many terrorist groups acknowledge Erdogan as a successful Muslim caliph and Sultan. Turkey built a magnificent Presidential Palace fit for a sultan. The White House and the Russian Kremlin are as modest cottages compared to the size of Sultan Erdogan palace.
He speaks like an Ottoman sultan and believes in umma. Umma is a concept created by Prophet Muhammad. Umma does not acknowledge and recognize national borders, but only the people's unity in the Islamic faith. That is the dream of Sultan Erdogan. To unite the whole world through Islamic fate.
Russia will defend Assad's regime. So Russia will attack all armed groups in Syria, both the Islamic state supported by Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Russia will also attack the rest of the Syrian opposition groups as Taliban and Al Nusra Front by Al Qaeda, supported by USA and Europe. All these are terrorists according to Russian definition. Russia makes an exception for the Kurds and people of Kurdistan as they proves to be a powerful ally against Turkey. While Turkey have only one goal. A dissolved Syria will give Turkey the opportunity to annex Syria into the old Ottoman Empire.
If Russia exterminates IS, Al Qaeda and Taliban. The Kurds from Kurdistan will dominate the area instead. And this is considered to be a threat for Turkey. Because Turkey is not safe if a dependent Kurdistan is becoming a reality. Because Turkey and Kurds are old enemies. A dependent sovereign Kurdistan will be a big benefit for Russia. As Turkey will wage war with Kurdistan instead of Syria. Giving Syria time to rebuild the economics and military power. And Kurdistan will instead be financially supported by Europe and USA. So Russia does not need to waste their resources to support war against Turkey. The Irony in all this is that the Kurds are supported by USA. Meanwhile Turkey as a member of NATO and US alliance are bombing Kurdish troops that are financed by USA. I wonder what Donald Trump would say after reading my analysis???
As the way Sultan Erdogan sees it. A dependent and sovereign Kurdistan is a big threat to Turkey.
1. Turkey will not be able to expand its borders and conquer middle east.
2. The dream of the Islamic Caliphate and Erdogan as a Sultan would be lost forever.
3. Jihadist and holy Islamic fighters are afraid of being killed by Kurdish female fighters. As they believe if a female kills them. Their soul will never reach heaven and will forever be tormented by Lucifer himself for eternity in hell.
And that is the end of my analysis in Turkey VS Russia.
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