TRUE OR PROPAGANDA? Reports claim multiple cities in Iran are now under full martial law. According to regime-linked statements, protests have largely subsided, with people ordered back into their homes after days of unrest.

 

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TRUE OR PROPAGANDA? Reports claim multiple cities in Iran are now under full martial law. According to regime-linked statements, protests have largely subsided, with people ordered back into their homes after days of unrest.

Iranian officials acknowledge many dead, injured, and arrested. Mohsen Ebrahimi, commander of Iran’s NOPO counter-terror forces, claims: “All cities have been cleared… the unrest the Zionist regime sought to create has been foiled.” As always with Tehran, official declarations of “calm” deserve scrutiny. What’s really happening on the ground?MOSSADIL COMMENTARY Guest Writer

@selenaryan_

This wave of protests in Iran is raising renewed questions about whether the regime could face collapse, following several previous protest movements that ultimately failed to bring systemic change. In recent years, Iran has experienced multiple waves of unrest, some lasting for months, yet none succeeded in toppling the regime. The last significant protest erupted in September 2022 after the death of Jina Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish woman who died after being beaten by Iran’s morality police for allegedly violating hijab regulations. That wave initially began among the Kurdish population and later expanded nationwide, drawing in students, merchants, and regime opponents. Approximately 550 people were killed, including both protesters and regime forces. Despite strong international attention and support, the movement eventually lost momentum and the regime remained in power. The current protests differ in several respects. They have emerged primarily from economic grievances rather than social or identity-based issues. The Kurdish population has not yet played a significant role, and the number of fatalities remains relatively low, with three regime members and two protesters reportedly killed so far. The pace of escalation is significantly faster, with new cities joining the protests daily and violence intensifying rapidly. Iran’s economic situation has deteriorated sharply since 2022, with soaring inflation, widespread poverty, and a national currency at record lows, leaving little hope for improvement. Additionally, the regime’s regional standing has weakened. During the 12-day war with Israel last June, senior military officials and Revolutionary Guard commanders were killed, exposing Iran’s military vulnerabilities and damaging its regional prestige. Israel demonstrated its ability to strike deep inside Iran and has indicated it could do so again. This precedent has altered strategic calculations. Iran’s proxy forces have also suffered significant setbacks over the past two years, reducing their regional influence and defensive value. Iran has further come under severe economic strain following the reimposition of snapback sanctions since September, sharply limiting state revenue and contributing to the recent collapse of the national currency. Political leadership has also changed. During the previous protest wave, Iran was led by Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline figure associated with mass executions and strong internal repression. His successor, Masoud Pezeshkian, is widely perceived as less forceful and less intimidating, projecting containment rather than deterrence. At the same time, regime opponents are now more experienced and emboldened than in past protest cycles. While the movement remains in its early stages and its outcome is uncertain, the current unrest has significant potential due to these combined factors. The protests have yet to receive substantial international backing, which many argue is critical to sustaining momentum. Supporters believe that if external actors, including Western states and Israel, intervene at the right moment, the current unrest could mark a decisive turning point for the regime. While it remains too early to predict the outcome, the unfolding events are widely viewed as among the most consequential developments in the region in recent years, with the potential to produce far-reaching effects.