human rights watch

fredag 13 juli 2018

De-escalation” a Russian-Turkish plan to eliminate regime's opponents

De-escalation” a Russian-Turkish plan to eliminate regime's opponents
The Russian plan, carefully devised on the Syrian territories, as planned in Astana through the so-called "De-escalation zones" at the expense of what used to call itself “the Syrian opposition” and turned into mercenaries at the hands of Turkey.

The De-escalation is a heinous trick that was created by the Russians to impose their domination on the Syrian territories and the Turks agreed with them to get out of their predicament and revive their project which was about to collapse.
Moscow employed in concert with Turkey and Iran this plan in order to serve its interests, where the Syrian regions has been laid out as serial stages in the pages of this agreement, starting from Daraa, south of Syria, through the towns of south Damascus, the eastern Damascene countryside, the eastern al- Ghouta, and the northern countryside of Homs and Idlb .Russia will be the guarantor of the agreement.
After years of  enmity, the Syrian crisis between Russia and Turkey, sometimes the mutual threat to change the rules of engagement and arrive to only few moments before launching the war between the two parties, and after Turkey’s loss for its project in Syria and the region, Erdogan had to fall into the lap of the Russian bear, any effort to exploit Erdogan's support for armed  gangs and mercenaries in Syria while at the same time his hostility to the Kurds and the democratic project they are leading in Syria.
The agreement between the tripartite Russia, Turkey and Iran, which enabled them to turn the balance of power on the ground after the agreement on freezing the frontiers, allowed the Syrian regime to isolate areas beyond its control one after the other. Whenever an area was attacked to De-escalation areas, the remaining areas and fronts were frozen, this was easy to resolve quickly and at the lowest cost.
Russia put forward the idea of De-escalation zones, was the title of the stage was dreamed of since the beginning of its intervention in Syria is to be dominant on the Syrian file. Instead of inviting the real and active representatives of the Syrian people, Russia called on the warlords, who had long described them as terrorists and mercenaries, and put the fate of the Syrian people in their hands.
After all that happened in Aleppo and al-Ghouta, the sequence of Daraa and the South of Syria became on the international players' table after the war of the local authorities backed by the region ended. Russia has achieved its goal in the south by forcing the armed gangs to sign an agreement under fire and adopted the double bombardment and negotiation after working on the exclusivity of each region alone and concluding agreements with them before snatching an agreement of the armed gangs to start handing over heavy weapons in exchange for the withdrawal of regime's troops from several villages which were controlled during its current military campaign.
Some observers believe that the Daraa deal was the culmination of an agreed US-Russian consensus since the meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and American President Donald Trump in July last year. This means that the agreement on De-escalation areas was a temporary plan aimed at taming the so-called opposition and subjecting it to Turkey and its settlements.
Doubtlessly, the course of events from Aleppo and al- Ghouta to Daraa indicates that De-escalation areas were not for the security of the people or the end of the war but rather the interests of the countries as is happening today in the south to reduce Iran’s presence in fulfillment of Israel's conditions.
In the midst of everything that happened, the attention goes to Adlib city after the opposition was ended and gathering of armed gangs, mercenaries and terrorists in a small geographical area in order to impose a big settlement on it or Russia's use of scorched earth policy.
With the increasing talk now about the expected scenarios of Adlib city in the face of Russian threats to attack armed and terrorist gangs and mercenaries already existing and the displaced to De- escalation areas. Adlib province faces several scenarios, the first to be resolved by Russia militarily through the use of the policy of the scorched earth and thus will end of the militants throughout Syria, who are fighting the regime and working to an external party is Turkey, so Russia ends De-escalation areas with Turkey and announce the end of the Turkish role in the game.
The second scenario is to pressure on Turkey to eradicate Jabhit al-Nusra that is classified on the international terrorism list by disarming and integrating it into other gangs supported by Turkey in Adlib and withdrawing heavy weapons from all groups so as not to pose a threat to Russian interests in Syria.
However, this option makes the regime vulnerable to the gathering of a large number of armed gangs, mercenaries and terrorists who have refused to settle with the regime in other Syrian regions. This region is adjacent to Turkey and Turkey can support them every time it seeks to implement a policy in Syria. Turkey sees Aleppo city adjacent to Idlib as an Ottoman state must be controlled.
The third scenario is the continuation of Russia's agreement to De-escalation to settle the situation of militants and return of the institutions of the regime to that region, which effectively removes Turkey from the region, thus the regime’s domination prevails on it.
This scenario seems likely given that the objective of any military operations in Idlib by the regime is to open roads between the positions of the regime forces and not to control to Adlib city, and thus the forces of the regime to reopen the Aleppo-Damascus international road, which is basically agreed upon between Russia and Turkey. Thus, Maarat al-Numan, Sarqib, Khan Shaykhun and other areas along the northern section of the road will be controlled reaching the city of Aleppo, thus limiting the militants to a smaller area to force them to accept the settlement with the regime.
The talk of the Constitutional Committee is another Russian attempt to point out that the war is over and the rules of the state must be established. The most important is the constitution, which the victorious party must set according to its vision with some minor changes at the request of the loser. It must be emphasized that this was initiated by Russia in Astana when it began promoting a draft constitution that no one gave it any interest in.
This constitution, through which Russia wishes to consolidate its interests in the Syrian territories, is seen as the culmination of what is interpreted as a great victory.

Inga kommentarer:

Skicka en kommentar